Was that any good? So, we’ve got a general
election and everyone is scrambling around
looking at tactical voting. I find it very confusing. Personally, not
convinced that it works. Right, and I can
see where you’re coming from because we’ve
got different websites, different sources making
different recommendations. So we, today, are going to
talk about which of these you can maybe have more
faith in, which less. Does it work at all? We’re going to be your
tactical voting guides. So, I’ve been getting loads
of text messages from friends, or even colleagues have been
asking me who to vote for. I feel like I have so much
power that I shouldn’t have. And a lot of them,
in fact all of them, live in marginal constituencies
and what they’ve been doing is looking at 2017
results but then hearing different, conflicting
answers from these websites. So we really dug into this. Now, why now? Why is tactical
voting happening now? It’s because the
two major parties – Labour and the Conservatives –
haven’t really been dominating the polls as much
as they used to. Now, we’ve looked at polling
data in the last two years but really we could go back
quite a bit more in history and what we would see –
let’s say this is like, 50 per cent of the vote –
is that the Conservatives have been jostling for the
top position for a while. More or less, this is
what’s been happening. We have the Conservatives at
42 per cent in the most recent poll of polls and Labour
are at 29 per cent. The Lib Dems have sort of
re-emerged from obscurity and are now at 14 per cent. The Green party is also. …. is, yeah, the Brexit
party, and they have… They’re on six. …gone up to 6 per cent,
and they had some big results in the European
elections in May. So, let’s put the SNP in there. Apologies to the SNP. I think they’re around
about four, aren’t they? So just at that. This is a political panorama. It’s all split, so
it’s no surprise that people are so confused. Right, because I guess back
when we had a two-party system and it was fairly
stable you could just look at the last
result and say, oh, it will probably be
something like that. Whereas, now, if we’ve got areas
where the Lib Dems have gone up and Labour have gone down, you
could actually have a situation where… let’s say you were a
Remainer and your strategy is to minimise the chance of the
Tories winning in your seat. Obviously what you
want to do is vote for the party that is closest
behind the Tories in your seat. Now, that may have
been Labour last time, but if they’ve gone down a bit
and the Lib Dems have gone up, it may now be the Lib Dems. And so, yes, as you
say the issue is, voters who are trying
to vote tactically just don’t know where
their vote should go. So, luckily for them there
are loads of websites advising them, right? There are. So let’s see if I can
just grab another sheet. Another thing that’s
confusing is their names, because they all sound the same. Whack that one over there. So, we have tactical.vote,
tacticalvote.co.uk – I’ll do a different colour and
this one – tactical-vote.co.uk, getvoting.org, and finally,
on the Remain side, remainunited.org. Is this just a Remainy thing? Tactical voting? Or Brexiteers do it
too, surely, right? Right. So you could be
confused for thinking this is only
Remainers, but we did find one pro, sort of pro-Brexit
tactical voting site, which is called oneuk.org. So, there’s a lot going off. I found that one quite amusing
because the results were something like 360 seats for the
Conservatives, 160 for Brexit, then 60 for Ukip, but then
one Independent, one Labour. It was something like that. It was very crazy. I mean, if everyone
follows their advice then it’s plausible, perhaps. Or is it? That’s the thing, I
guess this is the point. These are different
sites, all sorts of different numbers going on. So it’s hard to know. It’s hard to know where to
look and which you should trust more or less than others. I’m still very sceptical
about this because I put in… I tried to use one… because
my friend was asking me and I thought, well, let’s try this. And it gave me completely
contradictory results depending on which
website I was using, and also, when I
checked with the 2017 results of her constituency,
it just seemed like the result that it was giving
me made no sense. Yeah, and this is the point. Some people have
now made a, sort of, meta-tactical
voting sites, which collates all of the
different recommendations and they find there
are well over 100, just on the Remain side, where
different sites give different recommendations. So, shall we take a look at one? Let’s look at one. Let’s look at Finchley,
which we thought was particularly
interesting, right? Yeah. Finchley and Golders Green. This is in London and there’s
a couple of interesting things about this place. One is a relatively large
Jewish population and, I think, it’s well known that Labour has
had some problems there with the accusations
of anti-Semitism. And then we have a former
Labour MP, Luciana Berger. Whose now running
for the Lib Dems. Whose now running for the
Lib Dems, and is a Jewish MP and was born in London. So, you’d think, maybe Lib
Dems have a chance here. You would, but… But if you check the 2017
results, what would you see? So, let’s have a look at this. Do you want to
slap 2017 somewhere and I’ll put them next to that. Awesome. So, that’s the general election. Yeah. 2017. These blocks, we’re going to
say that each of these big ones is 10 per cent of the vote and
the little ones are 5 per cent. So what we’re looking at
there is 2017 general election result, Finchley
and Golders Green, where the Conservatives got
about 47 per cent of the vote. Labour would just be
under 43 per cent. It’s clearly a hugely
marginal constituency. Marginal constituency, but
very much a two-party race, and the Lib Dems only
got 6.6 per cent. So anyone looking at those
numbers would, of course, think, okay, if I want to
prevent the government’s Brexit deal going through then
I’ve got to vote Labour. But let’s see what these
different sites say. So, if we were to look at
the remainunited.org site, this is associated with… That’s this one? Gina Miller’s organisation. You get something a
little bit different. The numbers I’m
going to show you here are what they think
voting intentions currently are in Finchley and Golders Green. So this is based on polling? Yeah, they’ve done a big
poll of about 6,000 people across the country and
used to make projections for every seat, and they reckon
the Conservatives are still ahead, but on 42 per cent,
down from 47 per cent. They reckon Labour are 29 per
cent and the Lib Dems are on 28 per cent. So, essentially neck and neck. And, we’re talking
about a gap there of 13 per cent
between the top two, which, if these two coalesced,
could be overturnable. So the question is, 29
per cent, 28 per cent, who do you vote for? Then we look at getvoting.org. This is the site in association
with Best for Britain and they go even further. So in that situation we’ve
got the Conservatives on 40 – on 36 per cent, sorry. The Lib Dems on 26 per cent
and Labour on 25 per cent. What method is that based on? That’s similar to remainunited
but an even larger poll. They polled 46,000 people, which
meant they had enough to see what… That’s 46,000
across the country? Across the country. Not just in that constituency? Not just in that
constituency, no. That would be crazy. But, amazing. That would be the whole. Whole lot. So two methods here
which do a big poll, these were carried
out more recently. Sort of, September,
October, November time. So much more up to date than
2017 and they have essentially Labour and Lib
Dems neck and neck. And that’s not all. We can then look at the pollster
Survation and Deltapoll, and each of these have
been doing individual polls in the local area. So looking at this, I’m
still very confused. If I had a friend in
that constituency, obviously that’s not where I
live, but I wouldn’t know… I wouldn’t know what to advise. Right. And if we just add in the most
recent of all of those polls, which is the Deltapoll one ,
I’ll just show you how then the picture may be
changed even more. They have Conservatives on 46
per cent – this is Deltapoll – they’ve got the Lib Dems 32 per
cent and Labour on 19 per cent. Ah. That’s a bit more
clear cut, I suppose. A little bit more clear cut. And then, so they would now
be saying this very much, if you want to stop the
Tories getting into this seat you would vote Lib Dem. So, yeah. Clear as mud. And if we look at where
these are coming from. So, tactical.vote and
tacticalvote.co.uk are basing their recommendations
mainly on 2017, so tacticalvote in Finchley
would tell you to vote Labour. Remainunited and
getvoting.org would both tell you to vote Lib Dem. So it’s really not clear. And in the end you might not
be voting with your conscience. You just had this
one thing in mind and you’re being pulled
in different directions. Which is the result
that you want? But also, you’ve
got to be thinking – it’s almost like game theory
– is everyone else going to be tactically voting
as well and whose advice are they going to follow? And I find that
even more confusing because we don’t actually
know how many people are looking at tactical voting? According to one poll it’s
going to be around 60 per cent and another poll
found just 6 per cent, and obviously they phrased
the question differently so that made a huge impact. But on top of that, there have
been studies that show that, actually, tactical voting in
10 per cent of cases, I think, can be very counterproductive. It can, it can sort of
split the vote entirely. Exactly, yeah. Because if you think
about this case, if one person is going
to tactical.vote just because maybe that’s their
top result on Google, and the other goes to
one of the other sites, then you’ve got two
people who both think they’re voting to prevent the
Tories getting a majority, but they end up voting
for different parties and so the vote is
even more split. There are, however,
some substantial ways in which these sites are
doing things differently. So, for me – and
we’re not going to say one of these sites is great
and the others are bad and that kind of
thing – but I think you can think about
these sites differently. So, tactical.vote and
tacticalvote.co.uk are mainly basing their
recommendations on 2017. The getvoting.org
and remainunited are basing theirs on these
more up to date polls, and they are both going to be
updating their recommendations with new polling data over
the next couple of weeks. So for me, I would just say
that if the data’s recent and if the data is specialised
for that local area, such as the stuff from
getvoting and remainunited, that’s probably going to give
me the best idea of who my best choice is. And I would also say
check the sample size in the survey to make sure that
it’s the most accurate one. Exactly. If you look at the Deltapoll
and Survation local surveys, they surveyed a
few hundred voters. And sure, a constituency
is smaller than a country so you don’t necessarily
need to survey 1,000 people, but it means the error margins
on these numbers are big. So again, if you’re trying
to work out who’s second and who’s third and
they’re close to another, it essentially means
we don’t really know. So your friends have
been texting you. What advice have you
been giving them? I’m going to be a
bit of a politician and swerve this
question a little bit. I sort of answered
tactically, as it were. In one case it was a marginal
constituency, but it was… there was a consensus across
the different websites and the 2017 result showed that
there was a consensus there, so that was really easy. In the case where it was really
difficult to make a decision, I just told my friend,
well, check the candidates. See what their policies are,
see what you care most about, the sort of old-school way
of voting in an election. Vote with your conscience. Yeah. So you could do both, I suppose. I guess, good luck to all the
tactical voters out there, and we’ll see what happens on
the night of December the 12th. Let’s see who wins
amongst these websites. Indeed.