after the jobs report you did not a actress and change your viewpoint that we get a 25 basis point cut that's still coming and so we're basically expecting that there will be a 25 basis point cut we the market is obviously pricing a hundred percent probability of that we're really reviewing the data it almost feels like on a daily basis so today and tomorrow are critical in terms of what chairman Powell says and whether there's any guidance at that 25 basis point cut is taken off the table but we believe at this point given market conditions it's going to be difficult for them to do that we've got you know pretty solid GDP I don't know what its gonna be a good jobs number rates are low and headed lower what's not to like there's a lot of data where when you think of the traditional playbook it's hard right economic data is good there's everything that we've seen in terms of there's really no clear sign when we look at that traditional playbook for the Fed to cut rates that being said the signaling and the market pricing and a hundred percent probability hawkish surprises have been very rare so when we look at the percentages and about seven percent of cases versus 80 percent that the Fed does what the market wants it maybe we don't get it the you know the big picture and you know we're so used to being worried maybe we don't see that inflation is so low that we're in a place where we can leave rates low and enjoy better economic growth we got so used to 2% growth and everyone tells us that's the best we can do there were times when we did better maybe we can because of population growth and productivity Jason but aren't times pretty good there time to stay long don't you think they're core they're quite good I think the only problem the Fed really has is that you have 13 trillion dollars of negative yielding sovereign debt globally which is up from about seven trillion last September and so it's not a closed system that's that's the only problem the Fed really is dealing with which is to say I agree with you Joe but by the same token the the Fed can't be completely blithely unaware of what's happening in the financial markets itself and so if you have let's say if you have an inverted yield curve or three months to two years things along those lines there are structural things that the Fed probably has to do let's say you agree with me cuz I'm not saying this I'm just asking I'm just making a point I think I can go to the other side immediately and tell you this is one big massive central bank orchestrated bubble that like that all acid bond markets in one stock markets I can make that guy read people that believe that very seriously that were you know in territory where the stock market's very vulnerable and everything else so as we've talked about before the the dollar winds up really being the the Governor on the engine for how quickly the Fed can tighten and I think you know the Fed might not like to admit it or other people might not like to admit it but the president was right I in my opinion the Fed probably tightened one too many times last year and I think the market's reaction right before Christmas Eve last year was a pretty good indication of that the S&P fell nine percent in four days so it's probably not bad as I could those that take some insurance I mean Greenspan has said that usually the last move in any sort of cycle is a move that was unnecessary it was one move too far so if you are of that thinking as Alan Greenspan is then that that move in December should be taken back and should be sort of negated but Kristen I'm just wondering in terms of how you position because it seems like there's a huge risk that you said it's very unlikely that the markets won't get the cut because Fed Funds futures are a hundred percent that seems like it's the number one risk to this market rally the markets sitting at practically record highs that we don't that we get hawkish testimony that he starts saying you know what because to break the cycle of the markets leading the Fed Jerome Powell could come out today and sort of walk that back a little bit really the only opportunity exactly because when we look at okay we're running out of time right so when we look at the economic data the jobs report obviously that was almost an argument not to cut right and we saw the market adjust having 50 basis points on the table and then 25 basis points really being the the only option and so right now the only thing that could talk the markets back is today and tomorrow so Powell will have to actually signal to markets that we don't need this cut at the point in time and I think the market is also going to look to the longer strategy because do we see that a recession is imminent no and so we at Citi maintain a bear market checklist where we look across 18 different factors right now only four of them are flashing slightly red and it's the ones that you would imagine it's basically leverage on balance sheets it's the inverted yield curve everything else is actually quite positive and to put that into comparison to different markets in 2000 it was 17 out of 18 in 2007 it was 14 out of 18 and by the way this doesn't tell us the direction of markets it just tells you should you buy the dips and so it's telling us right now if we see a pullback by the dips you