In June 2011, I have written a blog post
at emergic.org titled “Project 275 for 2014”. It outlined how the BJP could
create a wave election and get passed the 182 limit that had won previous
elections to get a majority on his own. That figure of 275 formed the basis for
Mission 272+ for the BJP in 2014. Politics is all about warfare.
It’s a modern art of war. It’s about capturing new territory constantly, just like
happens in wars. BJP today has territory which covers 70% of India’s population. What do they do in the next war? let’s take a look. We all know BJP won 282 in 2014. How did they really do it? The answer lies in 90% of 60%. This theory was put forward by Praveen Chakravarty, in a column in business standard five days after the results in 2014. He postulated that in
11 of the 19 largest states, NDA won 90% of seats. These states make
up 60% of the total of 509 seats in the 19 larger states of
the total 543 Lok Sabha seats. Hence the phrase 90% of 60%. These states primarily in the largely Hindi speaking North and West accounted for – 232 of the 282 seats
the BJP won. So what can the BJP do to ensure that it cannot repeat its 2014 performance in the next election. The 1st and easiest step ofcourse is to
ensure that the BJP repeats its 90% of 60%. The challenges here are 2 – Lack
of jobs in youth and the incomes of farmers which had not been going up.
Result is that the BJP could actually lose 60 to 70 seats of the 232 that it
won in the Hindi speaking States as we saw earlier. BJP also realises that losing anything more than 50 seats could jeopardise the position of Narendra Modi
as India’s next Prime Minister. So what will it therefore do? I believe that the Mission 272+ of 2014 will now become Mission 543 of the next direction.
How is that so ? Under the leadership of Narendra Modi the BJP has a very
powerful leader there is momentum going for it and this is perhaps the best
opportunity the BJP will ever get to ensure it expands across the country
into every seat in the nation. What therefore can it really do?
To the next Mission for the BJP workers will be to win every booth every block and every
seat in the country in the next election. How will it be possible? There are 4 strategies that the BJP will use to make this happen. Strategy number 1 is obvious. It will target the non-hindi states where they just
won 31 of the 206. In these states it will try and become the principal
opposition party. So mistakes by the ruling party can result in a direct
benefit to the BJP. Strategy 2, The BJP targets the other 34 seats primarily in Jammu and Kashmir, the Northeast and the union territories. But these are still
small in number so the aggregate will not increase by much even if it does
much better than what it did last time. Taken together strategies 1 & 2 can add maybe 10 to 15 more seats for the BJP. It still does not put it in the
safe zone. So what will it do next? And the answer lies in looking at the seats which its allies won in 2014. Especially, in Maharashtra, Bihar and
Andhra Pradesh. So that leads to strategy 3: With the BJP basically decides to dump its allies and fight every seat on it’s on. Let’s look specifically at Maharashtra, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh. In Maharashtra as the Assembly Elections and Municipal Elections have shown it is possible for the BJP to transfer the Shiv Sena votes
to itself. In Bihar, with Lalu Prasad now in Jail.
BJP would be eyeing the seats that its current ally JDU will be finding.
Perhaps it could decide to dump the JDU before the
next election given that JDUs owned voteshare is not very large and the BJP
has momentum behind it. It’s also a good way to counter anti-incumbency in the
state. Andhra Pradesh is interesting, because
there have been governance challenges in the state after the split. What the BJP could do to tackle the double anti-incumbency in its TDP alliance is to go on it’s own.
It also opens up the South. Perhaps Andhrain’s could be persuaded to
look at BJP as the alternate governance model just as Tripura did. So this focus on mission 543 explains the BJP reluctance to mend fences with the Shiv Sena in
Maharashtra and the TDP in Andhra Pradesh. This opens a strategy 4. What the BJP will do is to target senior Congress leaders in specific States on corruption. It is doing exactly this in Tamil Nadu.
The goal is to ensure that no regional party will therefore ally with the
Congress if it is seen has been corrupt in that state. The inherent message to
every Congress leader and leader of a regional party is that BJP is
going to come after you with its central investigator agencies. After-all they are all
roadblocks and BJPs path for Mission – 543. The seeming inability to repeat 90% of
60% and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to actually set up a presence across the
country is what is going to drive BJPs Mission – 543. Fight every booth, fight
every block, fight every seat with an aim to win. Under a leaders like Narendra Modi, This is perhaps the best opportunity for territorial expansion that the BJP has.Thus this guarantee a BJP victory in the next elections
not so fast as we have seen there is rising economic hardship in
people, there is also rising discontent. At some point that discontent may turn
into anger and if that happens even the Maya Jal that BJP has put
through its traditional media control may not be enough to make people look
for new alternatives. The question therefore is, Is there a national alternatively? It may be hard for voters to view the Congress as its national
alternative? But when there is a vacuum It’s also an opportunity for political
entrepreneurs and political startups. It is possible but a new political startup
with a focus around prosperity may come to the fore and rise and challenge the BJP
in the next election. Voters in India are still waiting for someone who can smash the Anti- prosperity machine and so that they can elect India’s first prosperity Prime Minister. You can read all the details of this column and my previous commentries @Rajeshjain.com or @nayidisha.com in the daily section. I hope you can also share
this video with your friends so we can spread the awareness of what’s really
happening in the politics in this country.